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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd